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Mike Pence, running for president in 2024, will face long odds

Former Vice President Mike Pence made a move For the past few months to distance himself from former President Donald Trump and position himself for a possible presidential nomination. But history reminds us how difficult it can be for a current or former vice president to win the White House. On top of that, the current state of the Republican Party suggests that the chances are even slimmer for Pence.

Vice presidents may be “a heartbeat away from the presidency,” but they are often a long way from the operations of the Oval Office.

The vice presidency is an infamously frustrating office. John Nance Garner, who served in the first two terms of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, complained The position is “a jug isn’t worth the hot piss”. (Almost as an example of his purpose, reporters felt completely free to clean up this vice president’s words on their own and replace them as “a jug of warm spit.”)

Vice presidents may be “a heartbeat away from the presidency,” but they are often a long way from the operations of the Oval Office. Their role as a reserve student limits and lowers their profile, which can cause problems later if they rise to the top.

When Vice President Richard Nixon ran for president in 1960, a the reporter asked President Dwight D. Eisenhower will present an example of a “key idea” proposed by the vice president and actually implemented by the Eisenhower administration over the previous eight years. “I can think of one if you give me a week,” chuckled the president. “I do not remember.”

Nixon lost.

While vice presidents find it difficult to find credit for an administration’s positive achievements, they also find it equally difficult to ignore an administration’s failures.

The Vietnam War, as President Lyndon B. Johnson pulled down the poll numbers of vice president Hubert Humphrey, tried to distance himself Johnson during the 1968 presidential campaign. Humphrey tried to take a slightly different stance in combat, but the most significant changes were purely stylistic. From the rostrum, the vice-president removed his seal. The vice president flag has likewise disappeared at public events. The campaign stopped promoting him as the sitting vice president of the United States and named him the Democratic presidential candidate. Not only were critics of the war impressed with the changes, but LBJ saw Humphrey’s maneuver as a betrayal.

Humphrey lost.

It’s hard for vice presidents to claim credit for an administration’s achievements, and it’s hard to distance themselves from an administration’s shortcomings, but it’s nearly impossible to do both.

But it looks like Pence is trying to do just that. It spreads what New York Times reporter Jonathan Martin said. named “A kind of chaos-free Trump strategy is a bet that Republican primary voters desire the last administration’s policy record, but lack the impulsiveness, norm-breaker, and bare demagoguery.”

On one level, Pence’s attempt to separate himself from Trump is ludicrous. held cabinet meetings Words of praise for Trump to an unsettling degree and so often on Trump’s “broad shoulders” that an ongoing joke among journalists. More than any other vice president in the recent past, Pence proudly presented himself as a loyal trough to the president.

More than any other vice president in the recent past, Pence proudly presented himself as a loyal trough to the president.

To be fair, Pence broke up with Trump when it mattered most. During the attempted uprising on January 6, 2021, he flatly refused to participate in the president’s plan to subvert the 2020 presidential election, even though many in his party were cowardly willing to do so. And Pence in recent months more candid in their criticism Criticism of Trump, pushing back not only his “big lie” that the 2020 election was stolen, but also the former president’s praise of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

Trouble for Pence, of course, majority of republicans Believe the lie that the 2020 election was somehow stolen from Trump. Even if Pence could be the nominee of choice for the anti-insurgency Republicans – a big “if” – the chances of him running from that aisle to victory in the GOP primaries seem very slim.

Of course, if Trump decides to run again in 2024, it will be even harder for Pence to claim credit for the achievements he has had. screaming now As the “Trump-Pence administration” because Trump will claim all the credit himself. The ex-president will mock him as the lightweight welterweight who did nothing in office and worse yet did nothing to help the Republicans’ coup attempt succeed.

Pence will most likely argue that he puts principle above politics and puts his country before his party. And in today’s GOP, such a stance almost guarantees that Pence will lose.

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